Is MFG or NBTB more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp (MFG) and NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MFG has a Quality of Company score of 8.6/10 while NBTB scores 8.4/10.

Which is a better buy — MFG or NBTB?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MFG and NBTB valuations compare?

MFG at $8.97 and NBTB at $46.24 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MFG vs NBTB Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MFG

National Commercial Banks

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp

Quality

8.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$8.97

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

NBTB

National Commercial Banks

NBT Bancorp Inc.

Quality

8.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$46.24

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MFG Fair Value	MFG Upside	NBTB Fair Value	NBTB Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$46.49	+418.3%	$30.44	-34.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$41.77	+365.7%	$40.40	-12.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MFG vs NBTB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MFG scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs NBTB's 8.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp (MFG) and NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MFG currently trades at $8.97 with a QOC of 8.6/10, while NBTB trades at $46.24 with a QOC of 8.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).