Is MDU or SND more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) and Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MDU has a Quality of Company score of 6.2/10 while SND scores 7.9/10.

Which is a better buy — MDU or SND?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MDU and SND valuations compare?

MDU at $21.08 and SND at $4.29 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MDU vs SND Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MDU

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)

MDU Resources Group, Inc.

Quality

6.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.08

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

SND

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)

Smart Sand, Inc.

Quality

7.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$4.29

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MDU Fair Value	MDU Upside	SND Fair Value	SND Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$5.60	+30.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$7.95	-64.8%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$8.10	-61.6%	$3.10	-27.7%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$5.39	-74.4%	$2.77	-35.4%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MDU vs SND — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

SND scores higher with a 7.9/10 quality rating vs MDU's 6.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) and Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MDU currently trades at $21.08 with a QOC of 6.2/10, while SND trades at $4.29 with a QOC of 7.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).