Is MDA or MRCY more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) and Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MDA has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while MRCY scores 7.9/10.

Which is a better buy — MDA or MRCY?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MDA and MRCY valuations compare?

MDA at $48.68 and MRCY at $108.11 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MDA vs MRCY Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MDA

Aerospace & Defense

MDA Space Ltd.

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$48.68

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

MRCY

Aerospace & Defense

Mercury Systems Inc

Quality

7.9

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$108.11

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MDA Fair Value	MDA Upside	MRCY Fair Value	MRCY Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$14.37	-70.5%	$17.17	-84.1%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$14.03	-56.5%	$17.15	-84.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MDA vs MRCY — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MRCY scores higher with a 7.9/10 quality rating vs MDA's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) and Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MDA currently trades at $48.68 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while MRCY trades at $108.11 with a QOC of 7.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).