Is MBRX or MDGL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) and Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MBRX has a Quality of Company score of 4.3/10 while MDGL scores 6.9/10.

Which is a better buy — MBRX or MDGL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MBRX and MDGL valuations compare?

MBRX at $2.74 and MDGL at $515.96 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MBRX vs MDGL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MBRX

Biotechnology

Moleculin Biotech, Inc.

Quality

4.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$2.74

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

MDGL

Biotechnology

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Quality

6.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$515.96

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MBRX Fair Value	MBRX Upside	MDGL Fair Value	MDGL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.77	-35.5%	$174.43	-66.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$237.47	-53.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$7.87	+187.3%	$6.32	-98.7%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MBRX vs MDGL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MDGL scores higher with a 6.9/10 quality rating vs MBRX's 4.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) and Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MBRX currently trades at $2.74 with a QOC of 4.3/10, while MDGL trades at $515.96 with a QOC of 6.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).