Is MBI or MTG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MBIA Inc. (MBI) and MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MBI has a Quality of Company score of 5.1/10 while MTG scores 8.6/10.

Which is a better buy — MBI or MTG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MBI and MTG valuations compare?

MBI at $5.90 and MTG at $25.51 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MBI vs MTG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MBI

Insurance - Specialty

MBIA Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$5.90

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

MTG

Insurance - Specialty

MGIC Investment Corporation

Quality

8.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$25.51

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MBI Fair Value	MBI Upside	MTG Fair Value	MTG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$10.65	+80.5%	$43.18	+69.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$24.67	-3.3%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$13.47	+129.0%	$76.11	+198.4%

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MBI vs MTG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MTG scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs MBI's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MBIA Inc. (MBI) and MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MBI currently trades at $5.90 with a QOC of 5.1/10, while MTG trades at $25.51 with a QOC of 8.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).