Is MAR or MGM more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Marriott International (MAR) and MGM Resorts International (MGM) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MAR has a Quality of Company score of 8.6/10 while MGM scores 5.8/10.

Which is a better buy — MAR or MGM?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MAR and MGM valuations compare?

MAR at $375.60 and MGM at $43.67 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MAR vs MGM Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MAR

Hotels & Motels

Marriott International

Quality

8.6

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$375.60

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

MGM

Hotels & Motels

MGM Resorts International

Quality

5.8

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$43.67

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MAR Fair Value	MAR Upside	MGM Fair Value	MGM Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$175.34	-53.3%	$78.52	+103.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$136.34	-63.7%	$50.58	+31.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MAR vs MGM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MAR scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs MGM's 5.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Marriott International (MAR) and MGM Resorts International (MGM) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MAR currently trades at $375.60 with a QOC of 8.6/10, while MGM trades at $43.67 with a QOC of 5.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).