MA vs MFIN

Mastercard Incorporated vs Medallion Financial Corp. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — MFIN scores higher on quality with 8.6/10 vs MA's 8.3/10. MA trades at $477.68 while MFIN trades at $9.82. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

MA

Credit Services
Mastercard Incorporated
Quality
8.3
out of 10
Value Trap
31
LOW
Price
$477.68
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

MFIN

Credit Services
Medallion Financial Corp.
Quality
8.6
out of 10
Value Trap
20
SAFE
Price
$9.82
Last close
Models
9/13
Active
MA
Quality Score 8.3/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
MFIN
Bayesian DCF sees +64.4% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

MA vs MFIN — Fair Value Comparison

MA
$0$188$376$564 Price$477.68 Bayesian …$325.88 (-31.8%) Earnings …$139.94 (-70.7%)
MFIN
$0$6$13$19 Price$9.82 Bayesian …$16.15 (+64.4%) Earnings …$3.93 (-60.0%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType MA Fair ValueMA Upside MFIN Fair ValueMFIN Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $325.88 -31.8% $16.15 +64.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $139.94 -70.7% $3.93 -60.0%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

MA vs MFIN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

MFIN scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs MA's 8.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do MA and MFIN Valuations Compare?

At $477.68, MA trades +31.8% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $325.88, while MFIN at $9.82 trades +64.4% below its estimate of $16.15. MFIN shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: MA vs MFIN

MA earns a Quality of Company score of 8.3/10 compared to MFIN's 8.6/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: MA vs MFIN

MA carries a LOW value trap risk (31/100) while MFIN shows SAFE risk (20/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Credit Services

Both MA and MFIN operate in Credit Services, which has 52 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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