KR vs NGVC

Kroger Company (The) vs Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — NGVC scores higher on quality with 9.4/10 vs KR's 7.9/10. KR trades at $61.56 while NGVC trades at $29.10. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

KR

Grocery Stores
Kroger Company (The)
Quality
7.9
out of 10
Value Trap
5
SAFE
Price
$61.56
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

NGVC

Grocery Stores
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott
Quality
9.4
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$29.10
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
KR
Bayesian DCF sees +83.3% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
NGVC
Quality Score 9.4/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

KR vs NGVC — Fair Value Comparison

KR
$0$44$89$133 Price$61.56 Bayesian …$112.84 (+83.3%) Earnings …$28.73 (-57.6%)
NGVC
$0$11$23$34 Price$29.10 Bayesian …$8.17 (-71.6%) Earnings …$0.48 (-98.3%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType KR Fair ValueKR Upside NGVC Fair ValueNGVC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $112.84 +83.3% $8.17 -71.6%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $28.73 -57.6% $0.48 -98.3%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

KR vs NGVC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

NGVC scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs KR's 7.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do KR and NGVC Valuations Compare?

At $61.56, KR trades +83.3% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $112.84, while NGVC at $29.10 trades +71.6% above its estimate of $8.17. KR shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: KR vs NGVC

KR earns a Quality of Company score of 7.9/10 compared to NGVC's 9.4/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: KR vs NGVC

Review the value trap analysis for both KR and NGVC to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Grocery Stores

Both KR and NGVC operate in Grocery Stores, which has 11 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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