Is KG or LMND more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) and Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. KG has a Quality of Company score of 6.9/10 while LMND scores 7.0/10.

Which is a better buy — KG or LMND?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do KG and LMND valuations compare?

KG at $11.24 and LMND at $58.00 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

KG vs LMND Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

KG

Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Kestrel Group, Ltd.

Quality

6.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$11.24

Last close

Models

5/13

Active

LMND

Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Lemonade, Inc.

Quality

7.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$58.00

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	KG Fair Value	KG Upside	LMND Fair Value	LMND Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$42.20	+275.4%	$19.80	-65.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$49.84	+343.4%	$19.37	-65.8%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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KG vs LMND — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

LMND scores higher with a 7.0/10 quality rating vs KG's 6.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) and Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

KG currently trades at $11.24 with a QOC of 6.9/10, while LMND trades at $58.00 with a QOC of 7.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).