Is HTH or IX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) and ORIX Corporation (IX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HTH has a Quality of Company score of 7.1/10 while IX scores 7.6/10.

Which is a better buy — HTH or IX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HTH and IX valuations compare?

HTH at $37.65 and IX at $38.70 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HTH vs IX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HTH

Financial Conglomerates

Hilltop Holdings Inc.

Quality

7.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$37.65

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

IX

Financial Conglomerates

ORIX Corporation

Quality

7.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$38.70

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HTH Fair Value	HTH Upside	IX Fair Value	IX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$131.86	+250.2%	$137.61	+255.6%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$17.66	-53.1%	$14.25	-63.2%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HTH vs IX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

IX scores higher with a 7.6/10 quality rating vs HTH's 7.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) and ORIX Corporation (IX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HTH currently trades at $37.65 with a QOC of 7.1/10, while IX trades at $38.70 with a QOC of 7.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).