Is HRZN or HTGC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HRZN) and Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HRZN has a Quality of Company score of 5.3/10 while HTGC scores 6.8/10.

Which is a better buy — HRZN or HTGC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HRZN and HTGC valuations compare?

HRZN at $4.19 and HTGC at $15.42 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HRZN vs HTGC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HRZN

Asset Management

Horizon Technology Finance Corp

Quality

5.3

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$4.19

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

HTGC

Asset Management

Hercules Capital, Inc.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$15.42

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HRZN Fair Value	HRZN Upside	HTGC Fair Value	HTGC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$16.43	+292.1%	$2.68	-83.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$1.46	-65.3%	$1.71	-89.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for HRZN vs HTGC — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

HRZN vs HTGC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HTGC scores higher with a 6.8/10 quality rating vs HRZN's 5.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HRZN) and Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HRZN currently trades at $4.19 with a QOC of 5.3/10, while HTGC trades at $15.42 with a QOC of 6.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).