HMY vs KGC

Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim vs Kinross Gold Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — KGC scores higher on quality with 9.4/10 vs HMY's 9.2/10. HMY trades at $17.67 while KGC trades at $28.99. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

HMY

Gold
Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim
Quality
9.2
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$17.67
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

KGC

Gold
Kinross Gold Corporation
Quality
9.4
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$28.99
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
HMY
Quality Score 9.2/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
KGC
Bayesian DCF sees +36.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

HMY vs KGC — Fair Value Comparison

HMY
$0$7$14$21 Price$17.67 Bayesian …$6.14 (-65.2%) Earnings …$17.60 (-0.4%)
KGC
$0$16$31$47 Price$28.99 Bayesian …$39.63 (+36.7%) Earnings …$24.06 (-17.0%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType HMY Fair ValueHMY Upside KGC Fair ValueKGC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $6.14 -65.2% $39.63 +36.7%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $17.60 -0.4% $24.06 -17.0%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

HMY vs KGC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

KGC scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs HMY's 9.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do HMY and KGC Valuations Compare?

At $17.67, HMY trades +65.2% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.14, while KGC at $28.99 trades +36.7% below its estimate of $39.63. HMY shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: HMY vs KGC

HMY earns a Quality of Company score of 9.2/10 compared to KGC's 9.4/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: HMY vs KGC

Review the value trap analysis for both HMY and KGC to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Gold

Both HMY and KGC operate in Gold, which has 50 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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