Is HLT or IHG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) and Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HLT has a Quality of Company score of 8.8/10 while IHG scores 2.1/10.

Which is a better buy — HLT or IHG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HLT and IHG valuations compare?

HLT at $327.66 and IHG at $154.88 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HLT vs IHG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HLT

Hotels & Motels

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Quality

8.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$327.66

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

IHG

Hotels & Motels

Intercontinental Hotels Group

Quality

2.1

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$154.88

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HLT Fair Value	HLT Upside	IHG Fair Value	IHG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$25.62	-92.2%	$58.41	-62.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$19.96	-93.9%	$102.01	-29.9%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HLT vs IHG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HLT scores higher with a 8.8/10 quality rating vs IHG's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) and Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HLT currently trades at $327.66 with a QOC of 8.8/10, while IHG trades at $154.88 with a QOC of 2.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).