Is HGV or TH more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) and Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HGV has a Quality of Company score of 7.1/10 while TH scores 5.9/10.

Which is a better buy — HGV or TH?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HGV and TH valuations compare?

HGV at $52.02 and TH at $17.36 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HGV vs TH Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HGV

Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Quality

7.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$52.02

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

TH

Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places

Target Hospitality Corp.

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$17.36

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HGV Fair Value	HGV Upside	TH Fair Value	TH Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$19.25	-63.0%	$15.74	-9.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$1.32	-92.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$4.69	-90.3%	$1.36	-92.1%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HGV vs TH — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HGV scores higher with a 7.1/10 quality rating vs TH's 5.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) and Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HGV currently trades at $52.02 with a QOC of 7.1/10, while TH trades at $17.36 with a QOC of 5.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).