Is GFR or HESM more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) and Hess Midstream LP (HESM) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. GFR has a Quality of Company score of 6.6/10 while HESM scores 9.5/10.

Which is a better buy — GFR or HESM?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do GFR and HESM valuations compare?

GFR at $5.63 and HESM at $37.50 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

GFR vs HESM Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

GFR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Quality

6.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$5.63

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

HESM

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Hess Midstream LP

Quality

9.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$37.50

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	GFR Fair Value	GFR Upside	HESM Fair Value	HESM Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.12	-80.2%	$63.07	+68.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$1.32	-76.5%	$12.95	-65.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for GFR vs HESM — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

GFR vs HESM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HESM scores higher with a 9.5/10 quality rating vs GFR's 6.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) and Hess Midstream LP (HESM) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

GFR currently trades at $5.63 with a QOC of 6.6/10, while HESM trades at $37.50 with a QOC of 9.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).