Is FLY or KTOS more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) and Kratos Defense & Security Solut (KTOS) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. FLY has a Quality of Company score of 6.4/10 while KTOS scores 8.0/10.

Which is a better buy — FLY or KTOS?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do FLY and KTOS valuations compare?

FLY at $46.49 and KTOS at $64.13 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

FLY vs KTOS Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

FLY

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Quality

6.4

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$46.49

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

KTOS

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts

Kratos Defense & Security Solut

Quality

8.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$64.13

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	FLY Fair Value	FLY Upside	KTOS Fair Value	KTOS Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$10.93	-76.5%	$4.59	-92.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$9.38	-72.3%	$6.44	-90.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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FLY vs KTOS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

KTOS scores higher with a 8.0/10 quality rating vs FLY's 6.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) and Kratos Defense & Security Solut (KTOS) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

FLY currently trades at $46.49 with a QOC of 6.4/10, while KTOS trades at $64.13 with a QOC of 8.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).