Is ESNT or MBI more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) and MBIA Inc. (MBI) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ESNT has a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 while MBI scores 5.1/10.

Which is a better buy — ESNT or MBI?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ESNT and MBI valuations compare?

ESNT at $58.34 and MBI at $5.90 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ESNT vs MBI Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ESNT

Insurance - Specialty

Essent Group Ltd.

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$58.34

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

MBI

Insurance - Specialty

MBIA Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$5.90

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ESNT Fair Value	ESNT Upside	MBI Fair Value	MBI Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$130.74	+124.1%	$10.65	+80.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$54.56	-6.5%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$190.52	+226.6%	$13.47	+129.0%

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ESNT vs MBI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ESNT scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs MBI's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) and MBIA Inc. (MBI) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ESNT currently trades at $58.34 with a QOC of 9.0/10, while MBI trades at $5.90 with a QOC of 5.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).