Is CVNA or KMX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Carvana Co. (CVNA) and CarMax Inc (KMX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. CVNA has a Quality of Company score of 8.7/10 while KMX scores 5.9/10.

Which is a better buy — CVNA or KMX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do CVNA and KMX valuations compare?

CVNA at $73.49 and KMX at $43.90 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

CVNA vs KMX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

CVNA

Auto & Truck Dealerships

Carvana Co.

Quality

8.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$73.49

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

KMX

Auto & Truck Dealerships

CarMax Inc

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$43.90

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	CVNA Fair Value	CVNA Upside	KMX Fair Value	KMX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$7.42	-89.9%	—	—
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$12.65	-82.8%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$60.62	-17.5%	$134.35	+217.9%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$82.61	-79.8%	$8.09	-78.9%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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CVNA vs KMX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

CVNA scores higher with a 8.7/10 quality rating vs KMX's 5.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Carvana Co. (CVNA) and CarMax Inc (KMX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

CVNA currently trades at $73.49 with a QOC of 8.7/10, while KMX trades at $43.90 with a QOC of 5.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).