Is COST or DLTR more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. COST has a Quality of Company score of 9.8/10 while DLTR scores 8.2/10.

Which is a better buy — COST or DLTR?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do COST and DLTR valuations compare?

COST at $995.20 and DLTR at $113.00 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

COST vs DLTR Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

COST

Discount Stores

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Quality

9.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$995.20

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

DLTR

Discount Stores

Dollar Tree, Inc.

Quality

8.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$113.00

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	COST Fair Value	COST Upside	DLTR Fair Value	DLTR Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$278.81	-72.0%	$86.74	-23.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$178.72	-82.0%	$20.22	-82.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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COST vs DLTR — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

COST scores higher with a 9.8/10 quality rating vs DLTR's 8.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

COST currently trades at $995.20 with a QOC of 9.8/10, while DLTR trades at $113.00 with a QOC of 8.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).