CME vs MORN

CME Group Inc. vs Morningstar, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — CME scores higher on quality with 9.8/10 vs MORN's 9.2/10. CME trades at $250.53 while MORN trades at $185.38. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

CME

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CME Group Inc.
Quality
9.8
out of 10
Value Trap
12
SAFE
Price
$250.53
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

MORN

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Morningstar, Inc.
Quality
9.2
out of 10
Value Trap
17
SAFE
Price
$185.38
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
CME
Quality Score 9.8/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
MORN
Quality Score 9.2/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

CME vs MORN — Fair Value Comparison

CME
$0$99$197$296 Price$250.53 Bayesian …$171.23 (-31.7%) Earnings …$76.82 (-69.3%)
MORN
$0$73$146$219 Price$185.38 Bayesian …$105.09 (-43.3%) Earnings …$33.35 (-82.0%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType CME Fair ValueCME Upside MORN Fair ValueMORN Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $171.23 -31.7% $105.09 -43.3%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $76.82 -69.3% $33.35 -82.0%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

CME vs MORN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

CME scores higher with a 9.8/10 quality rating vs MORN's 9.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do CME and MORN Valuations Compare?

At $250.53, CME trades +31.7% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $171.23, while MORN at $185.38 trades +43.3% above its estimate of $105.09. MORN shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: CME vs MORN

CME earns a Quality of Company score of 9.8/10 compared to MORN's 9.2/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: CME vs MORN

CME carries a SAFE value trap risk (12/100) while MORN shows SAFE risk (17/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Both CME and MORN operate in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges, which has 13 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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