Is CF or ICL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) and ICL Group Ltd. (ICL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. CF has a Quality of Company score of 10.0/10 while ICL scores 2.1/10.

Which is a better buy — CF or ICL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do CF and ICL valuations compare?

CF at $116.50 and ICL at $6.75 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

CF vs ICL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

CF

Agricultural Inputs

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Quality

10.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$116.50

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ICL

Agricultural Inputs

ICL Group Ltd.

Quality

2.1

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$6.75

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	CF Fair Value	CF Upside	ICL Fair Value	ICL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$277.21	+138.0%	$2.28	-66.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$113.05	-3.0%	$0.93	-83.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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CF vs ICL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

CF scores higher with a 10.0/10 quality rating vs ICL's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) and ICL Group Ltd. (ICL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

CF currently trades at $116.50 with a QOC of 10.0/10, while ICL trades at $6.75 with a QOC of 2.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).