CENX vs KALU

Century Aluminum Company vs Kaiser Aluminum Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — KALU scores higher on quality with 8.7/10 vs CENX's 7.9/10. CENX trades at $68.77 while KALU trades at $190.34. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

CENX

Aluminum
Century Aluminum Company
Quality
7.9
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$68.77
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

KALU

Aluminum
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
Quality
8.7
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$190.34
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
CENX
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
KALU
Quality Score 8.7/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

CENX vs KALU — Fair Value Comparison

CENX
$0$27$54$81 Price$68.77 Bayesian …$4.63 (-93.3%) Earnings …$45.91 (-33.2%)
KALU
$0$75$150$225 Price$190.34 Bayesian …$29.10 (-83.4%) Earnings …$7.98 (-95.8%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType CENX Fair ValueCENX Upside KALU Fair ValueKALU Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $4.63 -93.3% $29.10 -83.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $45.91 -33.2% $7.98 -95.8%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

CENX vs KALU — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

KALU scores higher with a 8.7/10 quality rating vs CENX's 7.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do CENX and KALU Valuations Compare?

At $68.77, CENX trades +93.3% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.63, while KALU at $190.34 trades +83.4% above its estimate of $29.10. CENX shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: CENX vs KALU

CENX earns a Quality of Company score of 7.9/10 compared to KALU's 8.7/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: CENX vs KALU

Review the value trap analysis for both CENX and KALU to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Aluminum

Both CENX and KALU operate in Aluminum, which has 4 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

2 of 13 MODELS UNLOCKED

You’re comparing 2 models. 11 more have an opinion.

11 hidden models compare CENX vs KALU differently — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more. Some may disagree with the 2 you see above.

11 additional fair values per stock Full confidence breakdown Live terminal — 5,000+ stocks

Bloomberg Terminal: ~$2,000/mo  ·  FactSet: ~$1,000/mo  ·  CirclFi: $0.90/day

See All 13 Models — $0.90/day

We don’t predict prices. We show you what 13 independent mathematical frameworks say a stock is worth — and let you decide.