Is BXMT or CDP more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) and COPT Defense Properties (CDP) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. BXMT has a Quality of Company score of 7.0/10 while CDP scores 7.5/10.

Which is a better buy — BXMT or CDP?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do BXMT and CDP valuations compare?

BXMT at $18.28 and CDP at $32.06 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

BXMT vs CDP Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

BXMT

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

Quality

7.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$18.28

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

CDP

Real Estate Investment Trusts

COPT Defense Properties

Quality

7.5

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$32.06

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	BXMT Fair Value	BXMT Upside	CDP Fair Value	CDP Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$20.32	+11.2%	$11.06	-65.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$4.29	-76.5%	$27.27	-15.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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BXMT vs CDP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

CDP scores higher with a 7.5/10 quality rating vs BXMT's 7.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) and COPT Defense Properties (CDP) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

BXMT currently trades at $18.28 with a QOC of 7.0/10, while CDP trades at $32.06 with a QOC of 7.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).