Is BTAI or COLL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) and Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. BTAI has a Quality of Company score of 4.4/10 while COLL scores 9.2/10.

Which is a better buy — BTAI or COLL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do BTAI and COLL valuations compare?

BTAI at $1.26 and COLL at $33.37 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

BTAI vs COLL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

BTAI

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.

Quality

4.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$1.26

Last close

Models

4/13

Active

COLL

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.

Quality

9.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$33.37

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	BTAI Fair Value	BTAI Upside	COLL Fair Value	COLL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$138.55	+315.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$30.34	-9.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$1.49	+24.3%	$18.30	-45.1%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$3.72	+194.9%	$67.38	+101.9%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for BTAI vs COLL — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

BTAI vs COLL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

COLL scores higher with a 9.2/10 quality rating vs BTAI's 4.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) and Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

BTAI currently trades at $1.26 with a QOC of 4.4/10, while COLL trades at $33.37 with a QOC of 9.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).