Is BP or COP more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares BP p.l.c. (BP) and ConocoPhillips (COP) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. BP has a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 while COP scores 8.1/10.

Which is a better buy — BP or COP?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do BP and COP valuations compare?

BP at $41.87 and COP at $113.98 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

BP vs COP Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

BP

Petroleum Refining

BP p.l.c.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$41.87

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

COP

Petroleum Refining

ConocoPhillips

Quality

8.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$113.98

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	BP Fair Value	BP Upside	COP Fair Value	COP Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$135.95	+224.7%	$251.40	+120.6%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$66.27	+58.3%	$26.09	-77.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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BP vs COP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

COP scores higher with a 8.1/10 quality rating vs BP's 6.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing BP p.l.c. (BP) and ConocoPhillips (COP) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

BP currently trades at $41.87 with a QOC of 6.5/10, while COP trades at $113.98 with a QOC of 8.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).