BBVA vs HSBC

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria vs HSBC Holdings, plc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — HSBC scores higher on quality with 2.2/10 vs BBVA's 2.0/10. BBVA trades at $23.29 while HSBC trades at $95.21. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

BBVA

Banks - Diversified
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
Quality
2.0
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$23.29
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

HSBC

Banks - Diversified
HSBC Holdings, plc.
Quality
2.2
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$95.21
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
BBVA
2 models active
Quality 2.0/10 — below average
HSBC
Earnings Power Value sees +261.7% upside
Quality 2.2/10 — below average

BBVA vs HSBC — Fair Value Comparison

BBVA
$0$9$18$27 Price$23.29 Bayesian …$7.59 (-67.4%) Earnings …$8.56 (-60.9%)
HSBC
$0$130$260$390 Price$95.21 Bayesian …$24.02 (-74.8%) Earnings …$330.58 (+261.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType BBVA Fair ValueBBVA Upside HSBC Fair ValueHSBC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $7.59 -67.4% $24.02 -74.8%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $8.56 -60.9% $330.58 +261.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

BBVA vs HSBC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

HSBC scores higher with a 2.2/10 quality rating vs BBVA's 2.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do BBVA and HSBC Valuations Compare?

At $23.29, BBVA trades +67.4% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.59, while HSBC at $95.21 trades +74.8% above its estimate of $24.02. HSBC shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: BBVA vs HSBC

BBVA earns a Quality of Company score of 2.0/10 compared to HSBC's 2.2/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: BBVA vs HSBC

Review the value trap analysis for both BBVA and HSBC to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Banks - Diversified

Both BBVA and HSBC operate in Banks - Diversified, which has 17 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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