AZN vs GSK

AstraZeneca PLC vs GSK plc — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — AZN scores higher on quality with 10.0/10 vs GSK's 8.7/10. AZN trades at $177.45 while GSK trades at $49.00. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AZN

Drug Manufacturers - General
AstraZeneca PLC
Quality
10.0
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$177.45
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

GSK

Drug Manufacturers - General
GSK plc
Quality
8.7
out of 10
Value Trap
12
SAFE
Price
$49.00
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
AZN
Quality Score 10.0/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
GSK
Earnings Power Value sees +12.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AZN vs GSK — Fair Value Comparison

AZN
$0$70$140$209 Price$177.45 Bayesian …$118.84 (-33.0%) Earnings …$72.98 (-58.9%)
GSK
$0$22$43$65 Price$49.00 Bayesian …$42.53 (-13.2%) Earnings …$55.24 (+12.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AZN Fair ValueAZN Upside GSK Fair ValueGSK Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $118.84 -33.0% $42.53 -13.2%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $72.98 -58.9% $55.24 +12.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AZN vs GSK — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

AZN scores higher with a 10.0/10 quality rating vs GSK's 8.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AZN and GSK Valuations Compare?

At $177.45, AZN trades +33.0% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $118.84, while GSK at $49.00 trades +13.2% above its estimate of $42.53. AZN shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AZN vs GSK

AZN earns a Quality of Company score of 10.0/10 compared to GSK's 8.7/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AZN vs GSK

AZN carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while GSK shows SAFE risk (12/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Drug Manufacturers - General

Both AZN and GSK operate in Drug Manufacturers - General, which has 20 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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