AXP vs ECPG

American Express Company vs Encore Capital Group Inc — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — AXP scores higher on quality with 9.1/10 vs ECPG's 8.4/10. AXP trades at $310.97 while ECPG trades at $78.09. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AXP

Credit Services
American Express Company
Quality
9.1
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$310.97
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

ECPG

Credit Services
Encore Capital Group Inc
Quality
8.4
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$78.09
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
AXP
Quality Score 9.1/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ECPG
Quality Score 8.4/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AXP vs ECPG — Fair Value Comparison

AXP
$0$122$245$367 Price$310.97 Bayesian …$275.91 (-11.3%) Earnings …$127.49 (-59.0%)
ECPG
$0$31$61$92 Price$78.09 Bayesian …$35.28 (-58.0%) Earnings …$10.64 (-86.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AXP Fair ValueAXP Upside ECPG Fair ValueECPG Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $275.91 -11.3% $35.28 -58.0%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $127.49 -59.0% $10.64 -86.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AXP vs ECPG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

AXP scores higher with a 9.1/10 quality rating vs ECPG's 8.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AXP and ECPG Valuations Compare?

At $310.97, AXP trades +11.3% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $275.91, while ECPG at $78.09 trades +58.0% above its estimate of $35.28. ECPG shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AXP vs ECPG

AXP earns a Quality of Company score of 9.1/10 compared to ECPG's 8.4/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AXP vs ECPG

Review the value trap analysis for both AXP and ECPG to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Credit Services

Both AXP and ECPG operate in Credit Services, which has 52 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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