Is ASPN or CARR more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) and Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ASPN has a Quality of Company score of 5.8/10 while CARR scores 7.6/10.

Which is a better buy — ASPN or CARR?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ASPN and CARR valuations compare?

ASPN at $6.37 and CARR at $63.81 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ASPN vs CARR Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ASPN

Building Products & Equipment

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.

Quality

5.8

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$6.37

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

CARR

Building Products & Equipment

Carrier Global Corporation

Quality

7.6

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$63.81

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ASPN Fair Value	ASPN Upside	CARR Fair Value	CARR Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$8.17	+28.3%	$29.09	-54.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$33.54	+426.6%	$27.68	-56.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ASPN vs CARR — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

CARR scores higher with a 7.6/10 quality rating vs ASPN's 5.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) and Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ASPN currently trades at $6.37 with a QOC of 5.8/10, while CARR trades at $63.81 with a QOC of 7.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).