Is APO or ARCC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) and Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. APO has a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 while ARCC scores 5.2/10.

Which is a better buy — APO or ARCC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do APO and ARCC valuations compare?

APO at $127.51 and ARCC at $18.81 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

APO vs ARCC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

APO

Asset Management

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$127.51

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ARCC

Asset Management

Ares Capital Corporation

Quality

5.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$18.81

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	APO Fair Value	APO Upside	ARCC Fair Value	ARCC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$243.74	+91.2%	$0.98	-94.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$56.56	-55.6%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$88.63	-30.5%	$41.76	+122.0%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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APO vs ARCC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

APO scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs ARCC's 5.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) and Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

APO currently trades at $127.51 with a QOC of 9.0/10, while ARCC trades at $18.81 with a QOC of 5.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).