Is AON or BWIN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Aon plc (AON) and The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AON has a Quality of Company score of 9.3/10 while BWIN scores 6.7/10.

Which is a better buy — AON or BWIN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AON and BWIN valuations compare?

AON at $318.30 and BWIN at $19.86 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AON vs BWIN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AON

Insurance Brokers

Aon plc

Quality

9.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$318.30

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

BWIN

Insurance Brokers

The Baldwin Insurance Group, In

Quality

6.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$19.86

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AON Fair Value	AON Upside	BWIN Fair Value	BWIN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$259.72	-18.4%	$0.92	-95.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$37.84	-88.1%	$16.40	-34.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AON vs BWIN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

AON scores higher with a 9.3/10 quality rating vs BWIN's 6.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Aon plc (AON) and The Baldwin Insurance Group, In (BWIN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AON currently trades at $318.30 with a QOC of 9.3/10, while BWIN trades at $19.86 with a QOC of 6.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).