AMTD vs APO

AMTD IDEA Group vs Apollo Global Management, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — APO scores higher on quality with 9.0/10 vs AMTD's 2.1/10. AMTD trades at $1.02 while APO trades at $128.28. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AMTD

Asset Management
AMTD IDEA Group
Quality
2.1
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$1.02
Last close
Models
6/13
Active
VS

APO

Asset Management
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Quality
9.0
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$128.28
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
AMTD
Earnings Power Value sees +379.3% upside
Quality 2.1/10 — below average
APO
Bayesian DCF sees +89.9% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AMTD vs APO — Fair Value Comparison

AMTD
$0$2$4$6 Price$1.02 Bayesian …$0.28 (-72.6%) Earnings …$4.98 (+379.3%)
APO
$0$96$192$287 Price$128.28 Bayesian …$243.59 (+89.9%) Earnings …$56.56 (-55.9%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AMTD Fair ValueAMTD Upside APO Fair ValueAPO Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $0.28 -72.6% $243.59 +89.9%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $4.98 +379.3% $56.56 -55.9%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AMTD vs APO — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

APO scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs AMTD's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AMTD and APO Valuations Compare?

At $1.02, AMTD trades +72.6% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.28, while APO at $128.28 trades +89.9% below its estimate of $243.59. APO shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AMTD vs APO

AMTD earns a Quality of Company score of 2.1/10 compared to APO's 9.0/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AMTD vs APO

Review the value trap analysis for both AMTD and APO to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Asset Management

Both AMTD and APO operate in Asset Management, which has 21 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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