AMRC vs APG

Ameresco, Inc. vs APi Group Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — APG scores higher on quality with 9.5/10 vs AMRC's 7.0/10. AMRC trades at $34.56 while APG trades at $40.58. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AMRC

Engineering & Construction
Ameresco, Inc.
Quality
7.0
out of 10
Value Trap
30
LOW
Price
$34.56
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
VS

APG

Engineering & Construction
APi Group Corporation
Quality
9.5
out of 10
Value Trap
17
SAFE
Price
$40.58
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
AMRC
First Chicago sees +253.6% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
APG
Quality Score 9.5/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AMRC vs APG — Fair Value Comparison

AMRC
$0$48$96$144 Price$34.56 EROIC Spr…$2.53 (-92.7%) First Chi…$122.20 (+253.6%)
APG
$0$16$32$48 Price$40.58 Bayesian …$18.48 (-54.5%) Earnings …$1.45 (-96.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AMRC Fair ValueAMRC Upside APG Fair ValueAPG Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic — — $18.48 -54.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic — — $1.45 -96.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $2.53 -92.7% $6.30 -84.5%
First Chicago Scenario $122.20 +253.6% $49.79 +22.7%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AMRC vs APG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

APG scores higher with a 9.5/10 quality rating vs AMRC's 7.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AMRC and APG Valuations Compare?

AMRC currently trades at $34.56 while APG trades at $40.58. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily for both companies.

Quality of Company: AMRC vs APG

AMRC earns a Quality of Company score of 7.0/10 compared to APG's 9.5/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AMRC vs APG

AMRC carries a LOW value trap risk (30/100) while APG shows SAFE risk (17/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Engineering & Construction

Both AMRC and APG operate in Engineering & Construction, which has 5 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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AMRC
View Full Ameresco, Inc. Analysis →
APG
View Full APi Group Corporation Analysis →