ALK vs LTM

Alaska Air Group, Inc. vs LATAM Airlines Group S.A. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ALK scores higher on quality with 7.1/10 vs LTM's 2.1/10. ALK trades at $43.91 while LTM trades at $51.01. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

ALK

Airlines
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Quality
7.1
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$43.91
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

LTM

Airlines
LATAM Airlines Group S.A.
Quality
2.1
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$51.01
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
ALK
Bayesian DCF sees +170.9% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
LTM
2 models active
Quality 2.1/10 — below average

ALK vs LTM — Fair Value Comparison

ALK
$0$47$94$140 Price$43.91 Bayesian …$118.94 (+170.9%) EROIC Spr…$16.61 (-62.2%)
LTM
$0$20$40$60 Price$51.01 Bayesian …$15.90 (-68.8%) Earnings …$19.32 (-61.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType ALK Fair ValueALK Upside LTM Fair ValueLTM Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $118.94 +170.9% $15.90 -68.8%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $19.32 -61.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $16.61 -62.2% $15.26 -69.5%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

ALK vs LTM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ALK scores higher with a 7.1/10 quality rating vs LTM's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do ALK and LTM Valuations Compare?

At $43.91, ALK trades +170.9% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $118.94, while LTM at $51.01 trades +68.8% above its estimate of $15.90. ALK shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: ALK vs LTM

ALK earns a Quality of Company score of 7.1/10 compared to LTM's 2.1/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: ALK vs LTM

Review the value trap analysis for both ALK and LTM to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Airlines

Both ALK and LTM operate in Airlines, which has 17 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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