Is AJG or ARX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Accelerant Holdings (ARX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AJG has a Quality of Company score of 8.9/10 while ARX scores 5.3/10.

Which is a better buy — AJG or ARX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AJG and ARX valuations compare?

AJG at $202.65 and ARX at $16.27 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AJG vs ARX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AJG

Insurance Brokers

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Quality

8.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$202.65

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ARX

Insurance Brokers

Accelerant Holdings

Quality

5.3

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$16.27

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AJG Fair Value	AJG Upside	ARX Fair Value	ARX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$86.89	-57.1%	$33.07	+103.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$19.00	-90.6%	$14.25	+8.8%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AJG vs ARX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

AJG scores higher with a 8.9/10 quality rating vs ARX's 5.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Accelerant Holdings (ARX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AJG currently trades at $202.65 with a QOC of 8.9/10, while ARX trades at $16.27 with a QOC of 5.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).