Is AGRO or ALCO more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) and Alico, Inc. (ALCO) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AGRO has a Quality of Company score of 2.1/10 while ALCO scores 5.8/10.

Which is a better buy — AGRO or ALCO?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AGRO and ALCO valuations compare?

AGRO at $12.63 and ALCO at $41.71 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AGRO vs ALCO Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AGRO

Farm Products

Adecoagro S.A.

Quality

2.1

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$12.63

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ALCO

Farm Products

Alico, Inc.

Quality

5.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$41.71

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AGRO Fair Value	AGRO Upside	ALCO Fair Value	ALCO Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$3.56	-71.8%	$15.19	-63.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$1.29	-90.7%	—	—
First Chicago	Scenario	$30.73	+122.3%	$59.12	+41.7%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AGRO vs ALCO — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ALCO scores higher with a 5.8/10 quality rating vs AGRO's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) and Alico, Inc. (ALCO) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AGRO currently trades at $12.63 with a QOC of 2.1/10, while ALCO trades at $41.71 with a QOC of 5.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).