AGNCO vs ARI

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit vs Apollo Commercial Real Estate F — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ARI scores higher on quality with 8.0/10 vs AGNCO's 7.0/10. AGNCO trades at $25.62 while ARI trades at $10.93. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AGNCO

REIT - Mortgage
AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit
Quality
7.0
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$25.62
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

ARI

REIT - Mortgage
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Quality
8.0
out of 10
Value Trap
16
SAFE
Price
$10.93
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
AGNCO
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ARI
Bayesian DCF sees +29.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AGNCO vs ARI — Fair Value Comparison

AGNCO
$0$10$20$30 Price$25.62 Bayesian …$7.26 (-71.7%) Earnings …$2.93 (-88.6%)
ARI
$0$6$11$17 Price$10.93 Bayesian …$14.18 (+29.7%) Earnings …$1.25 (-88.6%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AGNCO Fair ValueAGNCO Upside ARI Fair ValueARI Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $7.26 -71.7% $14.18 +29.7%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $2.93 -88.6% $1.25 -88.6%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AGNCO vs ARI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ARI scores higher with a 8.0/10 quality rating vs AGNCO's 7.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AGNCO and ARI Valuations Compare?

At $25.62, AGNCO trades +71.7% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.26, while ARI at $10.93 trades +29.7% below its estimate of $14.18. AGNCO shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AGNCO vs ARI

AGNCO earns a Quality of Company score of 7.0/10 compared to ARI's 8.0/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AGNCO vs ARI

AGNCO carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while ARI shows SAFE risk (16/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in REIT - Mortgage

Both AGNCO and ARI operate in REIT - Mortgage, which has 14 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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