AGCC vs MGPI

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd vs MGP Ingredients, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — MGPI scores higher on quality with 7.0/10 vs AGCC's 6.2/10. AGCC trades at $16.50 while MGPI trades at $16.82. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AGCC

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd
Quality
6.2
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$16.50
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
VS

MGPI

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
Quality
7.0
out of 10
Value Trap
25
LOW
Price
$16.82
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
AGCC
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
MGPI
Bayesian DCF sees +229.0% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AGCC vs MGPI — Fair Value Comparison

AGCC
$0$6$13$19 Price$16.50 Bayesian …$3.99 (-78.3%) ML-RIV$0.36 (-97.8%)
MGPI
$0$22$44$65 Price$16.82 Bayesian …$55.33 (+229.0%) Earnings …$5.29 (-72.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AGCC Fair ValueAGCC Upside MGPI Fair ValueMGPI Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $3.99 -78.3% $55.33 +229.0%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $5.29 -72.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $0.36 -97.8% $9.77 -46.0%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AGCC vs MGPI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

MGPI scores higher with a 7.0/10 quality rating vs AGCC's 6.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AGCC and MGPI Valuations Compare?

At $16.50, AGCC trades +78.3% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.99, while MGPI at $16.82 trades +229.0% below its estimate of $55.33. MGPI shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AGCC vs MGPI

AGCC earns a Quality of Company score of 6.2/10 compared to MGPI's 7.0/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AGCC vs MGPI

Review the value trap analysis for both AGCC and MGPI to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Both AGCC and MGPI operate in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries, which has 9 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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