Is ADTN or ASTS more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) and AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ADTN has a Quality of Company score of 7.2/10 while ASTS scores 5.9/10.

Which is a better buy — ADTN or ASTS?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ADTN and ASTS valuations compare?

ADTN at $16.92 and ASTS at $133.09 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ADTN vs ASTS Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ADTN

Communication Equipment

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Quality

7.2

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$16.92

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ASTS

Communication Equipment

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$133.09

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ADTN Fair Value	ADTN Upside	ASTS Fair Value	ASTS Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$17.20	+1.7%	$45.64	-65.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$36.01	+112.8%	$26.71	-65.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ADTN vs ASTS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ADTN scores higher with a 7.2/10 quality rating vs ASTS's 5.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) and AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ADTN currently trades at $16.92 with a QOC of 7.2/10, while ASTS trades at $133.09 with a QOC of 5.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).