Is ADM or AGRO more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) and Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ADM has a Quality of Company score of 7.5/10 while AGRO scores 2.1/10.

Which is a better buy — ADM or AGRO?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ADM and AGRO valuations compare?

ADM at $79.78 and AGRO at $12.13 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ADM vs AGRO Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ADM

Farm Products

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Quality

7.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$79.78

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

AGRO

Farm Products

Adecoagro S.A.

Quality

2.1

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$12.13

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ADM Fair Value	ADM Upside	AGRO Fair Value	AGRO Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$66.87	-16.2%	$3.42	-71.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$17.17	-78.5%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$37.69	-52.8%	$1.29	-90.7%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ADM vs AGRO — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ADM scores higher with a 7.5/10 quality rating vs AGRO's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) and Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ADM currently trades at $79.78 with a QOC of 7.5/10, while AGRO trades at $12.13 with a QOC of 2.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).