Is ACRE or AGNC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor (ACRE) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ACRE has a Quality of Company score of 5.7/10 while AGNC scores 7.4/10.

Which is a better buy — ACRE or AGNC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ACRE and AGNC valuations compare?

ACRE at $4.94 and AGNC at $10.41 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ACRE vs AGNC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ACRE

REIT - Mortgage

Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor

Quality

5.7

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$4.94

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

AGNC

REIT - Mortgage

AGNC Investment Corp.

Quality

7.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$10.41

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ACRE Fair Value	ACRE Upside	AGNC Fair Value	AGNC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$2.44	-50.6%	$7.92	-23.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$2.58	-75.2%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$5.97	+20.8%	$15.25	+46.5%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ACRE vs AGNC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

AGNC scores higher with a 7.4/10 quality rating vs ACRE's 5.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor (ACRE) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ACRE currently trades at $4.94 with a QOC of 5.7/10, while AGNC trades at $10.41 with a QOC of 7.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).