ACA vs APG

Arcosa, Inc. vs APi Group Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — APG scores higher on quality with 9.5/10 vs ACA's 8.6/10. ACA trades at $124.54 while APG trades at $40.58. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

ACA

Engineering & Construction
Arcosa, Inc.
Quality
8.6
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$124.54
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

APG

Engineering & Construction
APi Group Corporation
Quality
9.5
out of 10
Value Trap
17
SAFE
Price
$40.58
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
ACA
Quality Score 8.6/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
APG
Quality Score 9.5/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

ACA vs APG — Fair Value Comparison

ACA
$0$49$98$147 Price$124.54 Bayesian …$14.28 (-88.6%) Earnings …$13.48 (-89.2%)
APG
$0$16$32$48 Price$40.58 Bayesian …$18.48 (-54.5%) Earnings …$1.45 (-96.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType ACA Fair ValueACA Upside APG Fair ValueAPG Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $14.28 -88.6% $18.48 -54.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $13.48 -89.2% $1.45 -96.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

ACA vs APG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

APG scores higher with a 9.5/10 quality rating vs ACA's 8.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do ACA and APG Valuations Compare?

At $124.54, ACA trades +88.6% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $14.28, while APG at $40.58 trades +54.5% above its estimate of $18.48. ACA shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: ACA vs APG

ACA earns a Quality of Company score of 8.6/10 compared to APG's 9.5/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: ACA vs APG

ACA carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while APG shows SAFE risk (17/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Engineering & Construction

Both ACA and APG operate in Engineering & Construction, which has 5 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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