Is AAOI or ADTN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) and ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AAOI has a Quality of Company score of 6.3/10 while ADTN scores 7.2/10.

Which is a better buy — AAOI or ADTN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AAOI and ADTN valuations compare?

AAOI at $169.02 and ADTN at $16.92 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AAOI vs ADTN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AAOI

Communication Equipment

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

Quality

6.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$169.02

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ADTN

Communication Equipment

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Quality

7.2

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$16.92

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AAOI Fair Value	AAOI Upside	ADTN Fair Value	ADTN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$59.43	-64.8%	$17.20	+1.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$4.22	-97.7%	$36.01	+112.8%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AAOI vs ADTN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ADTN scores higher with a 7.2/10 quality rating vs AAOI's 6.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) and ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AAOI currently trades at $169.02 with a QOC of 6.3/10, while ADTN trades at $16.92 with a QOC of 7.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).