AA vs KALU

Alcoa Corporation vs Kaiser Aluminum Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — KALU scores higher on quality with 8.7/10 vs AA's 8.1/10. AA trades at $83.79 while KALU trades at $190.34. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AA

Aluminum
Alcoa Corporation
Quality
8.1
out of 10
Value Trap
24
SAFE
Price
$83.79
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

KALU

Aluminum
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
Quality
8.7
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$190.34
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
AA
Quality Score 8.1/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
KALU
Quality Score 8.7/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AA vs KALU — Fair Value Comparison

AA
$0$33$66$99 Price$83.79 Bayesian …$11.32 (-86.5%) Earnings …$7.91 (-87.5%)
KALU
$0$75$150$225 Price$190.34 Bayesian …$29.10 (-83.4%) Earnings …$7.98 (-95.8%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AA Fair ValueAA Upside KALU Fair ValueKALU Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $11.32 -86.5% $29.10 -83.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $7.91 -87.5% $7.98 -95.8%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AA vs KALU — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

KALU scores higher with a 8.7/10 quality rating vs AA's 8.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AA and KALU Valuations Compare?

At $83.79, AA trades +86.5% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.32, while KALU at $190.34 trades +83.4% above its estimate of $29.10. AA shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AA vs KALU

AA earns a Quality of Company score of 8.1/10 compared to KALU's 8.7/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AA vs KALU

Review the value trap analysis for both AA and KALU to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Aluminum

Both AA and KALU operate in Aluminum, which has 4 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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