Is AA or CENX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Century Aluminum Company (CENX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AA has a Quality of Company score of 8.1/10 while CENX scores 7.9/10.

Which is a better buy — AA or CENX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AA and CENX valuations compare?

AA at $75.58 and CENX at $67.53 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AA vs CENX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AA

Aluminum

Alcoa Corporation

Quality

8.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$75.58

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

CENX

Aluminum

Century Aluminum Company

Quality

7.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$67.53

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AA Fair Value	AA Upside	CENX Fair Value	CENX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$11.98	-84.1%	$4.70	-93.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$7.91	-87.5%	$46.62	-31.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AA vs CENX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

AA scores higher with a 8.1/10 quality rating vs CENX's 7.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Century Aluminum Company (CENX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AA currently trades at $75.58 with a QOC of 8.1/10, while CENX trades at $67.53 with a QOC of 7.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).