Movado Group Inc. (MOV) Fair Value 2026

MOV · Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Movado Group Inc. (MOV) trades at $37.81, approximately 27% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $29.72. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MOV
Price
$37.81
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $29.72 -21.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $18.04 -52.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $23.15 -38.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $33.36 -11.8%

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What Is Movado Group Inc. (MOV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Movado Group Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $27.03. Trading at its current price of $37.81, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -28.5%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $68.28 (+80.6%), versus Regime Cross at $12.02 (-68.2%). This +148.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MOV?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MOV. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MOV's intrinsic value at $29.72, implying -21.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MOV Rank in Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts?

Among 2 Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts stocks, MOV ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Movado Group Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MOV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MOV a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Movado Group Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Movado Group Inc. earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MOV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MOV's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Movado Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

FOSLFossil Group, Inc.QOC 5.7

Read investment analysis: FOSL

Frequently Asked Questions About Movado Group Inc.

What is Movado Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Movado Group Inc. (MOV) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $29.72. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MOV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.81, 2 of 13 active models suggest MOV may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Movado Group Inc.'s business model in Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for MOV?

Movado Group Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MOV?

CirclFi analyzes MOV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MOV a value trap in 2026?

Movado Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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