Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) Fair Value 2026

LPRO · Personal Credit Institutions ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) trades at $3.14, approximately 43% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $5.54. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LPRO
Price
$3.14
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +76.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$5.54 +76.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$0.62 -80.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.06 -34.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$0.89 -71.7%

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What Is Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Open Lending Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.05, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $3.14. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-34.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $5.54 (+76.5%), versus ML-RIV at $0.13 (-95.7%). This +172.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LPRO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LPRO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LPRO's intrinsic value at $5.54, implying +76.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LPRO Rank in Personal Credit Institutions?

Among 15 Personal Credit Institutions stocks, LPRO ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Personal Credit Institutions space, Open Lending Corporation competes in an environment where loan loss provisions often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is LPRO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LPRO a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Open Lending Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Open Lending Corporation is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +172.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LPRO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LPRO's 12 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Open Lending Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Personal Credit Institutions Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Personal Credit Institutions stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Open Lending Corporation

What is Open Lending Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $5.54. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LPRO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.14, 3 of 12 active models suggest LPRO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Open Lending Corporation's business model in Personal Credit Institutions.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for LPRO?

Open Lending Corporation's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LPRO?

CirclFi analyzes LPRO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LPRO a value trap in 2026?

Open Lending Corporation's Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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