Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) Fair Value 2026

AHT · REIT - Hotel & Motel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) trades at $3.22. QOC: 4.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AHT
Price
$3.22
Quality Score
4.2/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +249.0% upside with 17% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$0.60 -81.5%
ML-RIV
Low Conviction
$11.24 +249.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $3.22. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $5.92 (+83.7% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $11.24 (+249.0%), versus Markov DDM at $0.60 (-81.5%). This +330.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AHT?

2 of 13 models are currently active for AHT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AHT Rank in REIT - Hotel & Motel?

Among 2 REIT - Hotel & Motel stocks, AHT ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a real estate investment trust, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc operates in a sector where funds from operations (FFO) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AHT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AHT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AHT a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc is rated at 4.2/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +330.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AHT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AHT's 2 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Hotel & Motel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related REIT - Hotel & Motel stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: APLE

Frequently Asked Questions About Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc

What is Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 4.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AHT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.22, 1 of 2 active models suggest AHT may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc's business model in REIT - Hotel & Motel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.2 mean for AHT?

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc's QOC of 4.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AHT?

CirclFi analyzes AHT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AHT a value trap in 2026?

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →