Is USAR or VALE more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) and VALE S.A. (VALE) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. USAR has a Quality of Company score of 5.5/10 while VALE scores 1.9/10.

Which is a better buy — USAR or VALE?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do USAR and VALE valuations compare?

USAR at $28.01 and VALE at $16.25 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

USAR vs VALE Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

USAR

Metal Mining

USA Rare Earth, Inc.

Quality

5.5

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$28.01

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

VALE

Metal Mining

VALE S.A.

Quality

1.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$16.25

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	USAR Fair Value	USAR Upside	VALE Fair Value	VALE Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$11.62	-58.5%	$5.44	-66.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$2.95	-88.8%	$5.98	-65.2%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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USAR vs VALE — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

USAR scores higher with a 5.5/10 quality rating vs VALE's 1.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) and VALE S.A. (VALE) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

USAR currently trades at $28.01 with a QOC of 5.5/10, while VALE trades at $16.25 with a QOC of 1.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).