Is UPST or XYF more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) and X Financial (XYF) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. UPST has a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 while XYF scores 9.3/10.

Which is a better buy — UPST or XYF?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do UPST and XYF valuations compare?

UPST at $32.69 and XYF at $4.73 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

UPST vs XYF Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

UPST

Credit Services

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$32.69

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

XYF

Credit Services

X Financial

Quality

9.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$4.73

Last close

Models

4/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	UPST Fair Value	UPST Upside	XYF Fair Value	XYF Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$3.89	-88.1%	—	—
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$10.98	-66.4%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$1.64	-95.1%	$24.63	+420.8%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	—	—	$5.09	+7.7%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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UPST vs XYF — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

XYF scores higher with a 9.3/10 quality rating vs UPST's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) and X Financial (XYF) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

UPST currently trades at $32.69 with a QOC of 6.8/10, while XYF trades at $4.73 with a QOC of 9.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).